On Becoming a Hermit, Sort of ... Day 3

Day-3 (19th March 2020)

I started my day thinking about statistics. "Geek!" I hear you say, but read on. This is important, very important. My thinking continued and extended to what I learned in my scientific education and its application to my subsequent working life as a scientist and engineer. It has always occurred to me that there is not enough understanding of the principles of statistical probability and risk.

The mathematics of statistical analysis is crucial to the development firstly of our understanding of scientific phenomena and secondly to the control of processes, the building of reliable machinery and especially in medical science, on all of which we rely in our modern lives. 

The two main building blocks of science are the pure sciences of Chemistry and Physics, along with their various branches. Organic and inorganic chemistry, electrical, mechanical, optical, nuclear, thermodynamics and astro-physics all provide the fundamental principles on which modern technology is founded. In order to develop and build the machinery of modern technology, we need mathematics and, crucially, a means of assessing the probabilities of success for any designed system, the risks of failure in that system and therefore its economy, reliability and, perhaps most important of all, its safety.

How did we manage to develop the motor car to where it is today with the state of reliability we now enjoy in automotive technology, without the application of science and the assessment of its efficiency and reliability and consequent continual improvement? 

How did we develop computer technology, without the assessment of how to make it work, experimenting with different materials to build and carry the microcircuitry, without the development of binary code, which goes to build the software algorithms that determine the reliability of the technology in so many diverse activities of our lives? 

However, there is probably no other branch of science, where statistical analysis has been more important than in Bio-Medical science, in the development of medicines and treatments for illness, including infectious diseases. In fact, many of the mathematical techniques of statistics was developed in aid of this branch of science.

In its simplest form, the expression of risk or probability can be done by considering the linear scale, a line if you prefer, between 0% and 100%. Consider 0% to be 'Black' and 100% to be 'White'.

0% ------------------------------------------------------------ 100%
Black _______________________________________White

In science, there is never going to be 0% or 100% certainty. Systems, results, facts and reality always lie somewhere in between these two extremes. In other words, it is never either black or white.

To illustrate this, the following is circulating on social media right now and seems to be a very useful visual way to demonstrate the assessment of risk in the spread of the Corona virus.

With thanks to Gary Warshaw (https://twitter.com/GaryWarshaw)

Figures from the very important scientific report from Imperial College, which alerted the government to the advice they need to give to the nation, suggest that if we do not exercise this advice to implement 'Social Distancing', it is probable that we would be heading for a mortality rate that would result in as many as a quarter of a million deaths in the UK alone. That is 35 times the mortality currently reported World-wide so far! By strictly applying social distancing this was also reported to be able to reduce that figure to something like 20,000. Twenty Thousand ... is bad enough!! Let alone 250,000. The reality may still be higher than that lower figure, but it depends on how well we implement social distancing. Nonetheless this does put it into a chilling perspective. It doesn’t bear thinking about to consider the impact and repercussions the higher of those two figures will have on our lives.

There is no need to be afraid, because we can survive this thing. But before I go out again this week, however essential it may seem, whether for food or medicine, I shall have a careful think about these figures and reassess the necessity on the day. Let’s keep our itchy feet well grounded for as long as it takes. 

These are very hard times. Barbara and I, in our current circumstances, feel relatively lucky to be in the position we are. To be honest, I confess also to feeling a mixture of deeply felt anxiety and guilt about how our own children are managing, in different parts of the country. This is accompanied by a growing feeling that we need to do more to help them, but this would be in direct conflict with government advice, the message of today's post based on advice from the medical scientists, the people who know. 

So many of us live in differing circumstances, each of which may require the application of a different level of understanding of this crisis and how each of us manage to deal with it, physically and mentally. But I would begin to close this overly long essay with the following reminder what I believe is a reasonable summary of this message.

If you are young or even middle aged and physically fit, without any underlying condition that raises your own risks from this virus above minimal levels, you will survive this disease, but please try not to think only of your own safety, even though your life is as important as the life of anyone else. Try instead to think that, were you to be feeling only slight symptoms or even, as is possible, carrying the disease truly without knowing, somewhere down the line, in 5 days or even 30 days, someone could die as a direct result that you came into close contact with someone else, who passed it on to someone else, who passed it on and on ... and on. Even if you genuinely have no way of knowing whether or not either you (or the other person) are infected with the virus, it is by far the safest decision to assume you are. Simply put, you don't know what is the probability of you (or the next person) having the virus; whether it is nearer to 0% or 100% certainty, you don't know. Therefore there exists a degree of risk. A risk to human life. If you ignore this, you are playing Russian Roulette, not only with other people's lives, but particularly those of your family and friends, with whom you have more frequent, closer contact.

I apologise for the length and seriousness of this diatribe, but I had to get it down here, to clear my thoughts, to say what I needed to say, to say what I’ve understood to be true since the earliest days of my scientific education, hopefully to be understood by someone somewhere. This is a personal journal after all and you didn't have to read it or, if you did, thank you for bearing with me. If you agree with it, do let me know your views by commenting below.

It is now 12 midday, Thursday, 19th March and this post is already a bit too long. Before I close and publish it a little later in the day, I hope to report on something less demanding, slightly more cheerful. Perhaps see what crazy things our puppy-dogs get up to ... 

... just another refreshing walk to the trig point, in calm but chilly and bright conditions. We blew away some cobwebs.

Today's Music Choice from Clemency Burton-Hill's "Year of Wonder" is Cello Suite No.1 in G major 1: Prelude by J S Bach


[If you have been affected in any way by this journal and feel the need for support, please talk to a friend, a family member, someone who loves you ... or, if you'd like, leave a comment below]